Christmas 2015; The Weather Outside is Not Frightful; At Least So Far

Christmas in Long Lake is usually white or at least frozen. Even if there is no snow you expect ice, or an icy crust, especially in the forest. And, if all else fails, the mountain summits should be coated in white. But not this year. It's December 26th (2015) and there is no snow or ice to be seen -anywhere. Not in the shadows deep in the forest and not on distant summits. It looks like October before the first hard freeze.

The afternoon temperature passed 60 on Christmas eve and night time temperatures have dipped below 30 only a few times. There was a coating of snow on the summits in mid-November, (see my post on climbing Kempshall Mountain in early Nov.) but even that has completely disappeared.

It was under these unusual conditions that Elle and I set off on a walk to the historic Santanoni Preserve great camp complex. The ten mile round trip feeling like a walk on cool fall day.

Newcomb Lake with just a hint of ice. December 26th, 2015.

It's tempting to point a finger at climate change as the cause of this unusual weather but climate and weather operate on different scales; different time scales and different geographic scales. A point seemingly lost on those who consider the area occupied by the United States to be the entire world.

For example, when U.S. Senator Jimmy Inhofe brought a snowball into the Senate chamber (February, 2015) to make the point that it was cold outside so therefore climate change must be a hoax, he personally damaged our national standing around the globe (except apparently in Oklahoma). People around the world could only laugh and shake their heads at how silly the Americans have become. But they also had to wonder; is someone paying him to be stupid? Or, is he really unable to understand the distinction between weather and climate?

So now, looking at the reverse side of the coin, let's be clear, a single warm month in one small region does not mean much. If the current Octoberish weather becomes the norm for December then climate change might be the cause. And, as the argument that I commonly hear goes, so what if it does? The climate has always changed. We just have to adapt.

Ok, but it's still a question of scale. Based on our current knowledge of climate changes in the past, it's the pace of change that is the problem. An five degree increase in the average global temperature over a period of a thousand years would represent an extremely rapid rate of change. But even so, we would expect that thousand years to provide time for natural systems to adapt. It would be a disruptive event but ecosystems could adapt rather than collapse. That same change over a time span measured in decades it might very well be an event unprecedented in the history of the earth. We can only guess at what that scenario might bring but it is unlikely to be a good thing for a human population of eight to ten billion people. And it seems pretty foolish to give it a try to see what happens.

Still, gene preservation aside, we humans are selfish creatures and if the world is going to have a melt down those of us who live in the north can take advantage of it for a while. So let's get back to the hiking.

Elle, on the bridge that crosses Sucker Brook on the northeast corner of Newcomb Lake. This spot is a half mile past the camp complex. The trail passes through a beautiful forest with notable old cedars present.

By Adirondack standards, for December, this is a sunny day.

The bathhouse and beach. This spot is quarter mile from the main lodge site. It doesn't look like much at this time of year but there is a nice sand beach and this is a great spot for a swim on a hot day.

Ripples are visible in the sandy bottom of the lake. That's Moose Mountain near Moose Pond visible in the distance.

A lovely spot along the trail around Newcomb Lake. The trail around the lake is rugged and strikingly beautiful.